Republican leader Kevin McCarthy is taking the first major step Tuesday toward becoming House speaker, appearing before colleagues for a secret ballot election as he brushes past the objections of his right flank and begins a weeks-long sprint of deal-making to secure support.
McCarthy has led House Republicans this far, and with them now on the cusp of majority control, he has a chance to seize the gavel from Nancy Pelosi if Democrats are defeated.
But Republican leaders are facing an intense backlash on Capitol Hill over their disappointing performance in the midterm elections, when McCarthy's promises of a GOP sweep that would transform Washington collapsed. Instead, the House could have one of the slimmest majorities in 90 years, leaving McCarthy exposed to challengers. The fallout is spilling down-ballot in other Republican leadership races and in the Senate where Republican leader Mitch McConnell will face his own colleagues Wednesday.
The formal vote for House speaker will come when the new Congress convenes in January, Before then, McCarthy will need to shore up support from 218 lawmakers with potentially just a few votes to spare.
“It’s going to be a tight majority so everyone is going to have to work together,” McCarthy said late Monday as he exited a private leadership forum with lawmakers.
“We’ll be successful as a team and we’ll be defeated as an individual if we don’t all work together,” he said.
As House Republicans choose their leaders, many in the party are blaming their losses on Donald Trump, the former president who endorsed hundreds of candidates, many of them far-right contenders rejected by voters. The closed-door leadership elections are playing out on Capitol Hill hours before Trump is expected to announce his 2024 bid for the White House from his Mar-a-Lago club in Florida later Tuesday evening.
It's not just McCarthy's leadership that is in question but his entire team. This includes Rep. Tom Emmer, R-Minn., the campaign chairman who traditionally would be rewarded with a leadership spot but finds himself in a three-way race to be the GOP whip that might be forced into a runoff.
And one of Trump's top allies in the House, Rep. Elise Stefanik of New York — the third-ranking House Republican, who became the first lawmaker to back Trump in a 2024 run — is working to fend off rival Rep. Byron Donalds, a Black Republican from Florida who many lawmakers view as a potential new party leader.
A self-described “Trump-supporting, liberty-loving, pro-life, pro-Second Amendment Black man,” Donalds said after a closed-door forum late Monday he has enough support for the race with Stefanik to be close.
Tuesday's vote will provide a snapshot of the grind ahead for McCarthy, as the 57-year-old Californian reaches for the gavel when the new Congress convenes in January.
Trump backs McCarthy for speaker, but the two have had a rocky relationship, and even Trump’s support is no guarantee McCarthy will reach the needed 218 votes, particularly if Republicans win the House with just a slim, few-seat majority that would leave him no cushion for detractors.
At least one Republican Trump ally, Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida, said he's voting no on McCarthy.
It’s a familiar dynamic for House Republicans, one that befell their most recent Republican speakers — John Boehner and Paul Ryan — who both retired early rather than try to lead a party splintered by its far-right flank.
McCarthy survived those earlier battles between party factions, but he was forced to back out of an earlier bid for the speaker’s job in 2015 when it was clear he did not have support from conservatives.
This time, McCarthy will face a challenge from the conservative House Freedom Caucus, whose former chairman Rep. Andy Biggs, R-Ariz., has announced his bid, signaling the blistering battle ahead.
The weeks ahead promise to be a grueling period of hardball negotiations iwith the Freedom Caucus and rank-and-file Republicans as McCarthy tries to appease their demands and rack up the support he will need in the new year.
In a sign of how desperate Republicans are to bolster their ranks, some made overtures to conservative Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar of Texas to switch parties and join the GOP.
“They just said, ’name your price,″” Cuellar told reporters. “I’m a Democrat.”
The conservative Freedom Caucus lawmakers who typically align with Trump are prepared to extract demanding concessions from McCarthy before giving him their backing. They have a long list of asks — from prime positions on House committees to guarantees they can have a role in shaping legislation.
“I’m willing to support anybody that’s willing to change dramatically how things are done here,” Rep. Scott Perry, R-Pa., the chairman of the Freedom Caucus and a Trump ally, said after meeting privately with McCarthy.
But even rank-and-file lawmakers are assessing their choices for speaker, a position that is second in line to the president.
“I don’t just automatically assume heir apparent, necessarily,” said Rep. Steve Womack, R-Ark., who said he is still studying his choice for House speaker.
“We are voting for somebody who is going to be two heartbeats from the presidency,” he said.
While newly elected lawmakers arrived for orientation Monday, there are questions over who, exactly, will be voting Tuesday — with some of the House races still undecided. All the leaders will need to clear a simple majority Tuesday.
One key Republican, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, the far-right Trump-ally from Georgia, has become a quiet ally of McCarthy, who has promised to reinstate her on choice committees, working behind the scenes to ensure the leadership elections move forward.
