BAKERSFIELD, Calif. (KERO) — In a community like Kern County where agriculture is a main industry, should this incoming administration follow through with its promise of mass deportations, the economic impact could be significant.
- During a speech on August 8, 2024, Trump stated he planned to start "the largest mass deportation in the history of our country."
- Aaron Hegde, an Economics professor at Cal State Bakersfield and executive director of the Grim Family Center for Agricultural Business, estimates that 50 to 65% of the ag workers in Kern County are undocumented.
- This loss in population would also impact the county's overall GDP, with Hedge suspecting the hit would be up to 30%.
Ahead of President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration, a variety of topics are expected to be discussed, including his promise of mass deportations. In a community like Kern County where agriculture is a main industry, should this incoming administration follow through, the economic impact could be significant.
During a speech on August 8, 2024, Trump stated he planned to start "the largest mass deportation in the history of our country."
But for the agriculture industry, many worry the consequences this could have.
"Let's say the worst case scenario, and we do deport over half of the undocumented labor force. That's still close to either a third or a half of the actual ag labor force," said Aaron Hegde, an Economics professor at Cal State Bakersfield and executive director of the Grim Family Center for Agricultural Business.
Hegde estimates that 50 to 65% of the ag workers in Kern County are undocumented. He said should that workforce take a significant hit, "there will be a ripple effect."
"It may not be immediate, but you're looking at it over a period of time," he said.
Not only will farmers be impacted but all businesses throughout the county. Hegde estimated that for every dollar undocumented workers receive in wages, a $1.30 goes back into the local economy. He also suspects if farmers lose their undocumented workforce, they'd face financial losses in unharvested crops and replacing labor.
"The reason we have up to two-thirds of the farm labor force being undocumented is because those who are documented, those who are citizens or permanent residents, are not willing to do those jobs," he said. "In Minnesota a few years ago, they did a study where they offered at the time the national minimum wage was seven dollars or six dollars, and they offered $18. They got maybe three or four on this one particular farm where they were looking for a hundred workers."
According to the Migration Policy Institute, in a county of over 900,000, around 70,000 are undocumented. This loss in population would also impact the county's overall GDP, with Hedge suspecting the hit would be up to 30%.
Hegde pointed to the recent loss of activity in multiple businesses during the recent border patrol operation.
"Whatever you saw last week multiplied by how many weeks of it," he said. "The longer the uncertainty goes, so it's not necessarily a simple arithmetic, like it's like two times three times. There could actually be an exponential impact to it, because the more people stay away, the more impact and then the more it spreads throughout the economy."
Hegde said we won't have to wait too long to get a clearer picture of what's to come, especially during Trump's Inauguration speech Monday.
Trump is scheduled to be sworn in Jan. 20 at 9 a.m. PST.
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