SACRAMENTO, Calif. — Governor Gavin Newsom is sticking to a mid-May projection of when the COVID-19 outbreak will reach its peak in California.

While confirmed cases and deaths are rising in California, the rate of hospitalizations and intensive-care placements - a key indicator of resources the state needs - have been increasing more slowly. Newsom said they rose less than 5% over the weekend.

A new analysis by researchers at the University of Washington shows California will hit its peak of COVID-19 deaths on April 17.

Newsom isn't changing his forecast for the state, but he and the researchers agree things will worsen if people stop social distancing.